Predicting the Future

By Louis Avallone

For centuries, man has sought to predict the future, whether by astrology, palm reading, tarot cards, tealeaves, or crystal balls. In more modern times, sociologists and statisticians have developed scientific methods for rationally predicting the future, through trend analysis and cyclical patterns, such as when interest rates are lower, the stock market rises, and bond prices go down (just as an example).

It’s easy to understand why we are so fascinated by predicting the future. Comedian George Burns may have said it best, and most simply, “I look to the future because that’s where I’m going to spend the rest of my life.” It was Einstein who said he didn’t worry about the future because it comes soon enough.

Of course, it has often been said that trying to predict the future is like trying to drive down a country road at night with no lights, while looking out the back window. Incidentally, this also explains the kind of leadership coming out of Washington these days, and before long, it’s not unlikely that this foolish driving will simply get everyone stuck in the mud, on that country road, just spinning our wheels. And for those who have been stuck in the mud a time or two, spinning your wheels – only digs you in deeper.

So, with all of that said, I am still going to share with you a method of predicting the future, regarding the path of our nation, and the leadership of those folks in Washington, for the next four (4) years. With this method, you will be able to predict the policies of this administration and amaze your friends, on a variety of important subjects, especially on those, which aren’t yet dominating our national conversation.

Here is how you do it: Take any subject or issue, which this administration feels will advance their political agenda in Washington, and then find those instances in history where governments have instituted policies to address that same subject or issue. Now, make a list of those government policies that have failed.

Now, by “failed”, I mean those government policies whose stated objectives were hardly achieved, and thereby the costs greatly outweighed the benefits. For example, foreign aid programs that don’t help many foreigners, increasing government spending for schools that don’t educate students very well, or welfare assistance to the poor that does not lift the poor out of poverty, etc.

Once you have identified these “failed” policies of the past, you can now predict, with almost certainty, the position, and direction, of the Obama administration on that same issue. I’ll give you a couple of examples.

Look at the European countries, and the results from generations of socialist government policies, nationalizing everything from banks, to automobile manufacturing, insurance, healthcare, education, and energy production. The economic competitiveness of these European countries pale in comparison to the economies of India, China, Japan, and Korea, where workers are more productive. The average German, for example, works just 1,535 hours each year or 22 percent less than the average working American.

The Dutch and Norwegians put in even fewer hours, as do the British. In addition to this idleness, unemployment is even higher in European countries than it is in the United States.

This makes the point, exactly, in terms of predictions: The Obama administration is following the same, failed policies of those European countries, including Greece, where entitlement, dependence on others, envy, irresponsibility, and lack of ambition have led to a lower quality of life for all, stemming from an inability to compete with more productive economies around the world.

Here’s another example, with regards to foreign policy: Obama said, “Iran, Cuba, Venezuela, these countries are tiny compared to the Soviet Union. They don’t pose a serious threat to us the way the Soviet Union posed a threat to us” and that he would negotiate with Iran personally, saying “I’m not afraid of negotiating with anybody”. Well, history’s lesson on this foolishness is fatal. While England and France negotiated, Hitler continued to mobilize his military, and violated every agreement in the meantime.

Iran is doing the same now, and is using negotiation to buy time for their deadly ambitions. And much like Hitler, they agree to negotiate, then violate the negotiated agreement, then refuse to negotiate, until the international community responds forcefully, and then they agree to negotiate (again). The merry-go-round starts all over.

Still, today, our Iran foreign policy seems to be a Xerox copy of the failed attempts to deal with Germany, which led to World War II. What happened to the successfully proven foreign policy of America: peace through strength?

Perhaps Obama’s interest in repeating failed government policies is because he believes that everyone, who has tried them before, just didn’t do them well enough. Maybe he thinks they weren’t smart enough to understand them, in the first place, but that if he tries them, he’ll get it right.

Others say that Obama is just interested in re-making America into a European-like state. Maybe. But thus far, he seems only interested in those European policies that have failed.

So now, at the end of this column, and unlike past centuries of mankind, you now have a reliable method of predicting the future, regarding the leadership of those folks currently in Washington. I can’t explain why they do what they do, but it reminds us all of one thing: We desperately must look to the successes of history, if we’re going to restore, anytime soon, our nation’s great future.

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